East Coast dockworkers will have leverage over employers if we unite. Last time around, in 2004, the employers suckered the union into believing that cutting pay would save jobs. But volume on both the East and West Coast grew exponentially regardless of the pay and benefit differentials.

This time around, you can be sure they will try the same thing. The employers will cry about the economic recession and slowing economic growth. They will complain about the impact of oil prices on carriers, stevedores and shippers. They will even complain about competition among themselves. On top of that, the new players in the industry, big private capital firms like AIG And Deutsche Bank, will be looking for short-term profits at the expense of long term growth. Employers will turn up the pressure on the union to accept givebacks on staffing, technology, wages, pension, and health care the same way they did in the late 1990s when the union agreed to pay cuts right at the beginning of an industry boom.

Here is what they will not tell you:
The East Coast will continue to grow with the expansion of the Panama Canal scheduled for completion in 2014, regardless of the pay rate. Employers have expanded capacity in many of the major container ports on the East and Gulf coasts and even with slow growth the East Coast will hit capacity while productivity continues to increase. The East Coast is also upgrading its rail connections inland to handle discretionary cargo bound for the Midwest. During the height of the boom they made a killing on the tiers. This time there are no excuses for a contract that does not meet our needs.